北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

利用干酪根固体~(13)C核磁共振法研究下古生界碳酸盐岩的热演化程度

应用固体~(13)C－NMR技术对下古生界,海相碳酸盐岩干酪根的化学组成和结构特征进行研究，提出应用该技术所测算的干酪根结构参数“芳核平均结构尺寸”能较准确地反映碳酸盐岩的热成熟度。首次提出芳核平均结构尺寸与镜质体反射率之间的关系在干酪根的热演化过程中具有“三段式”特征。利用这一成果对华北地区下古生界成熟度进行了测定，与地质背景甚为吻合。     

涕灭威在植物和土壤中的移动与分布

报道了涕灭威在花生、棉花、柑橘和土壤中的吸收、运转和分布。结果表明，涕灭威及其代谢物在柑橘叶子中的残留４０ｄ达到最高峰（３．４４９ｐｐｍ），可食部位的残留范围为０－０．０８９ｐｐｍ，低于美国ＥＰＡ规定的ＭＲＬ。涕灭威在土壤中降解较快，半衰期约１周。收获时土壤中的检出范围为０－０．１５７ｐｐｍ。涕灭威及其代谢物水溶性很强，且具有渗透和扩散性，因此使用不当可能造成地下水污染。     

秦山核电站运行后对邻近海域生态环境及其水质影响评价

通过对秦山核电站运行前后相隔近７ ａ 的工程区邻近海域四季度月生物与非生物环境生态各要素的两次调查分析，进行了Ⅰ期工程运行以来海域生态环境及水质状况的影响评价。结果认为，秦山海域具典型强潮河口湾生态特征，营养盐丰富，而生产力低下。潮汐、径流和湾外海水入侵是导致海洋环境要素季节和年际变化并直接影响海洋生物结构的主要因子。水体富营养化指数上升是沿岸工业和生活污水大量排放的结果。核电站运行中冷却水的热排放由于杭州湾特殊的海底地形和强潮混合的水体环境对附近水域的热升温效应不明显。秦山Ⅰ期工程运行以来对海域生态环境和水质变化未见明显影响     

Fetal translocation between chromosomes 2, 18, and 21 resolved by fish

An apparently balanced t(2q;21q) translocation was discovered in fetal blood and amniocytes of a 22-week fetus, monitored because of ultrasonographic evidence of a heart disease. FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization) analysis disclosed a complex translocation between chromosomes 2q, 18q, and 21q, which was inherited from the healthy mother. This observation corroborates the usefulness of molecular cytogenetic techniques in raising the quality of prenatal diagnosis and detecting subtle rearrangements not resolved by standard cytogenetics.     

事故前人因失误研究

在安全评价中，人因失误特别是事故后人因失误越来越受到重视；但相对而言，事故前人因失误没有引起足够的重视。本通过对大量核电厂安全分析报告和运行事件报告的考察，系统地阐述了事故前人因失误对系统安全的显影响，并在此基础上，归纳出在核电站开展事故前人因(失误)分析的程序。该程序主要包括系统熟悉，定性分析，筛选，定量计算，与故障树的集成，敏感性分析与不确定性分析，形成分析档等几个步骤。     

核事故中放射性核素扩散浓度的理论预测

在高斯烟羽模型的基础上,对核事故中放射性云团在大气中的扩散规律进行了研究。利用倾斜烟团模式,考虑实际过程中核素粒子的重力沉降、雨洗作用以及放射性衰变等因素的影响,提出一种迅速估算放射性核素扩散浓度的方法。该方法可计算核事故中连续点源和瞬时点源在不同气象、地形条件下的浓度分布,并可获得地面的干沉积率和湿沉积率。放射性核素浓度的确定是放射性事故抢险救援和辐射防护等工作的基础和前提,是放射性事故应急救援的重要组成部分。该结果在核事故的应急救援过程中,对救援人员划定警戒区和确定周围居民的疏散范围具有重要意义,并可为制定救援方案和应急决策提供科学依据。     

Estimation of thyroid doses and health risks resulting from the intake of radioactive iodine in foods and drinking water by the citizens of Tokyo after the Fukushima nuclear accident

The release of radioactive materials from the Fukushima nuclear power plant after the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 poses health risks. In this study, the intake of iodine 131 (I-131) in drinking water and foods (milk, dairy products, and vegetables) by citizens of Tokyo was estimated. The effects of countermeasures (restrictions on the distribution of foods and the distribution of bottled water for infants) on reducing intake were also evaluated. The average thyroid equivalent doses without countermeasures from 21 March 2011 were 0.42 mSv in adults, 1.49 mSv in children, and 2.08 mSv in infants. Those with countermeasures were 0.28, 0.97, and 1.14 mSv respectively, reductions of 33%, 35%, and 45%. Drinking water contributed more to intake by adults and children than foods. The intake of I-131 within the first 2 weeks was more than 80% of the estimated intake, owing to its short half-life, indicating that rapid countermeasures are important in reducing intake. The average risks of cancer incidence and mortality due to I-131 for infants were estimated to be 3 × 10⁻⁵ and 0.2 × 10⁻⁵, respectively, lower than the annual risks of traffic accidents, naturally occurring radioactive material (potassium 40), and environmental pollutants such as diesel exhaust particles.